Since the short-lived mobilization and march of Wagner forces in Russia over the weekend, pundits and experts have been speculating on what exactly happened during the tense two days and what it says about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power base.
Col. Douglas Macgregor, a retired Army colonel and former senior advisor to the secretary of defense under former President Trump, told The Dallas Express he believes Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin expected imminent U.S. entry into the war in Ukraine and that his actions over the weekend were meant to sound an “alarm … designed to induce Putin to act.”
On Saturday, Prigozhin marched some of his forces into Russia toward Moscow, appearing — at least to some observers — to briefly threaten Putin’s grip on power before reportedly capitulating and agreeing to live in exile in Belarus.
Macgregor drew attention to a resolution currently being considered in the Senate, co-authored by Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT). The resolution warns that not only would the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia, Belarus, or “their proxies” be considered an attack on NATO, triggering an Article V response, but so would “the destruction of a nuclear facility that disperses radioactive contaminants into NATO territory.”
According to Macgregor, the resolution convinced Prigozhin that “Washington’s military intervention is now inevitable,” which compelled Prigozhin to attempt “to convince Putin that he must take decisive offensive action to crush the enemy and win the war before D.C. leads intervention into Western Ukraine.”
On George Galloway’s MOATS podcast on June 25, Macgregor subsequently claimed that Ukrainian forces have been attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant controlled by Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine. In theory, if a strike or other event were to damage the plant and cause a meltdown, the consequent dispersal of radioactive material could trigger Article V and possibly even a nuclear response from the United States.
Macgregor told The Dallas Express that he believes Putin likely got Prigozhin’s message and that “quite soon … changes in the high command will be announced,” he told The Dallas Express.
Prigozhin had been publicly feuding with senior members of Russia’s military command for weeks before he rallied his troops inside the country, including Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. On June 26, Shoigu appeared in a video released by the Defense Ministry meeting with military officers in Ukraine.
Former Marine Corps intelligence officer and UN Special Commission weapons inspector Scott Ritter had a different take on Prigozhin’s motivations when he appeared on Andrew Napolitano’s show, “Judging Freedom,” over the weekend, while the outcome of the mobilization was still unclear.
Ritter said he believed Prigozhin was working with Ukrainians to achieve a “Moscow Maidan moment,” referencing the 2014 Maidan Revolution in Ukraine that removed Ukraine’s ostensibly pro-Russia president, Viktor Yanukovych, from power. Ritter said that Prigozhin and his forces would ultimately be put down.
The Dallas Express spoke with Ritter by phone about what transpired in Russia over the weekend. Asked about speculation that the United States might be drawn into the war by the ramifications of the Graham-Blumenthal resolution, Ritter replied: “[The United States] will not enter this war. … Joe Biden does not take orders from Blumenthal or Graham.”
Ritter characterized the episode as “an embarrassment for Putin.” But, Ritter continued, “[Putin] cleaned it up.”
On Monday, June 26, Putin addressed the Russian public for the first time since Prigozhin’s gambit. Putin said that any Wagner fighters that did not want to join the Russian military could join Prigozhin in Belarus, reported The New York Times.
Putin’s deal with the alleged mutineers has raised some eyebrows. Marie Dumoulin, a director with the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Newsweek, “The fact that Putin is willing to make concessions when faced with violence may herald further challenges of an even more radical nature.”
Whatever the real motivations behind Prigozhin’s actions, one of the big questions prompted was how the move will impact Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine going forward.
The Dallas Express asked Ritter for his take. “[There is] no linkage between this and the Russian special military operation,” he claimed.
Col. Macgregor told Galloway he thinks Putin would react with an escalation.
“I think this offensive is going to be unleashed.”
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